Those holding out hope that we’ll see Big Nick and Donnie reunite once more for another totally bats*** crazy heist might not want to hold their breath. “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” hit theaters in early January and topped the box office with $15.5 million. It essentially matched the original’s opening weekend from 2018, which suggested there was a loyal following for this budding franchise. But the outlook has worsened as the weeks have gone on, and the odds of “Den of Thieves” 3 is happening are looking less sure by the minute.
As of this writing, Lionsgate’s sequel has earned $31.8 million domestically to go with $8.6 million overseas for a running total of $40.4 million worldwide. Director Christian Gudegast’s film carries a $40 million budget, which doesn’t account for marketing. Since theaters keep roughly half of the money earned from ticket sales, this one still has a long way to go before it reaches profitability. Unfortunately, it’s fading fast.
In its third weekend, “Pantera” dropped nearly 55%, taking in just $3 million. For contrast, the original “Den of Thieves” held much better, pulling in $4.5 million in its third weekend, ultimately finishing with $80.5 million worldwide. $44.9 million of that came from domestic ticket sales. That first entry also had a lower $30 million price tag. So the sequel would need to make more to break even, yet it’s currently falling faster week to week.
Lionsgate is recovering from its worst year ever at the box office in 2024. The studio is just one part of the equation here and they tend to insulate themselves from risk by bringing on financial partners, usually selling off overseas rights to help cover costs. As far as their investment is concerned, Lionsgate may well be happy with what’s going on domestically. But other companies such as G-BASE and Diamond Film Productions are involved. Can the puzzle come together in the end to make a third film make sense? That’s the big question.
The director of Den of Thieves has four movies planned
For what it’s worth, the box office is just one component here. The original “Den of Thieves” recently topped the charts on Max, suggesting it’s had a healthy life on streaming over the last seven years. The other big part of the equation is VOD. In all likelihood, “Pantera” is a film that many, many people will watch at home, and VOD can be very lucrative. Universal recently revealed that “Wicked” made a whopping $70 million in its first week of digital release. (Granted, in that case we’re talking about a movie that made well over $700 million worldwide, but still.)
Sony probably ended up turning a profit on the flop that was “Morbius” thanks to VOD. So that can change the narrative for certain films. VOD numbers are rarely released by studios, so it’s hard to say what’s going to happen here. What I can say with confidence is that the box office numbers alone do not suggest that “Den of Thieves 3” would be a wise investment, unless overseas audiences begin turning out en masse.
One thing we know for sure is that Gudegast has plans for this franchise well beyond the second film. “Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. Yep. Yes, sir. Yes, absolutely. Yeah,” the director said to /Film when asked if he plans to write and direct a possible “Den of Thieves 3.” What’s more, Gudegast added that the plan currently extends “for sure” to at least four movies. The law of diminishing returns may well catch up with them before that happens, but here’s hoping that the math checks out in the end and I’m wrong about that because, to put my cards on the table, I very much want to see more of Gerard Butler’s Big Nick mixing it up with O’Shea Jackson Jr.’s Donnie. I’m rooting for success here, and I spoke about this (plus other box office news) on today’s episode of the /Film Daily podcast:
“Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” is in theaters now.
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