When Donald Trump was decisively re-elected as the 47th President of the United States on November 4 last year, it was clear that the world economic order was about to change. Unlike the chaotic scenes of January 2021, the transition of US political power proceeded smoothly on Monday.
Despite being a controversial public figure both inside America and in the rest of the world, many world leaders have been quick to embrace him. Whichever way one may want to look at it, Trump’s views on many domestic and foreign policies resonate well with a majority of Americans. That is why they brought him back, his persona notwithstanding.
It is notable how he highlighted the overwhelming support he received from Black Americans and Latinos—demographics that would traditionally be expected to back the Democratic candidate, former Vice President Kamala Harris. Ironically, these groups are among those likely to be affected by his policies on immigration.
So weighty are the issues at play that the Right Reverend Mariann Edgar Budde publicly asked President Trump to show mercy to immigrants and those who identify themselves with a gender different from male and female.
As part of his raft of immediate executive orders, Trump has since declared it is the official policy of the US government that there are only two genders, male and female. Kenya got the cough instantly that a Member of Parliament had to weigh in on the gender question.
Making reference to my Op-ed on this column after Trump won the elections in November, I alluded to this new order. What was unclear then until he was sworn in, was how fast and far-reaching would the disruptions be. From an analytical perspective, it was also not clear if the US President wields so much power to fundamentally alter the country’s major policies within a single term limit of four years. This is given the US history of very strong institutions and heritage of traditions passed over administrations, designed to safeguard the country’s democracy, economic interests and rights and freedoms of the American people.
Trump’s own assault of these institutions and traditions during the chaotic transition of power in January 2021 was shocking. On Monday, probably to re-affirm this heritage, all living former US presidents quietly sat through the swearing-in ceremony, despite what they may feel about Trump’s policies, his assault on their legacy or his conduct in 2021.
Based on the number and extent of the Executive orders that President Trump has signed so far, it seems nothing is off the limits in his final term in office.
Unlike a similar question of whether it is a consecutive or non-consecutive two-term limit contemplated in our Constitution, which some governors have informally tried to question, the US presidency already has precedence on that. Stephen Grover Cleveland was elected the 22nd and 24th President in 1885 – 1889 and 1893 -1897 respectively. Thus, Trump is unlikely to attempt to play that card.
America first
What now we need to ask is: What is it that we need to do as a country to protect our national interest in this new geo-economic and political order of Trump 2?
In about 30 minutes of his inaugural speech and a raft of Executive orders thereafter, President Trump has defined the US economic and political order, at least as he sees it. Kenyans on social media have been quick to note that Trump has delivered almost all his promises on his first day in office. This is a veiled attack to the pleadings of Kenya Kwanza to be given more time to actualize their promises to Kenyans.
From Trump’s speech and Executive orders, the thing that will shape his presidency and Americas relations with the rest of the world is what he terms as the golden age of America first. This ideal is largely behind the subsequent executive orders on immigration controls, reversal on use of fossil fuels in favor of green energy sources, suspension of US aid for 90 days and subsequent withdrawal of the US from the World Health Organization (WHO), removal of limitations on use of social media, definition of gender, US involvement in ongoing Ukraine-Russia and the Middle East conflicts, and renaming of the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America among others.
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To many observers, Kenya may be caught in this crossfire given the cozy relation that President Ruto enjoyed under President Biden’s administration.
From a critical point of view, while there definitely will be several ongoing programs that will suffer from the new policies, there still is a small window of opportunity to assure some sense of continuity.
The Kenyan mission in Haiti serves American interest and perfectly aligns with Trump’s stance of America first. With hindsight, this is the bait that President Ruto used to warm himself into the heart of Biden’s administration. As of then, it remains the singular window of opportunity to navigate into the boardrooms of the incoming Trump administration. It is noteworthy that the second contingent of 217 officers arrived in Haiti hours before Trump was sworn in.
In addition to the operation in Haiti, Kenya remains a strategic ally to the US on security operations within the Horn of Africa, especially on the threats of terrorism. All factors considered, President Trump is very unlikely to interfere with any budgetary, technical and logistical support to Kenya within the security docket.
On the other hand, likely casualties will be programs in trade, health, human rights and devolution. On trade, policy controls to protect American industries and create jobs are unlikely to be selective. As a consequence, the incoming Trump is likely going to slow down pre-existing trade negotiations between Kenya and the US. This is especially true after the exit of Amb Meg Whitman. We should also expect tighter controls on permissible Kenyan exports to America.
90-day suspension
Health, devolution and support to civil society on human rights will likely be the major casualties in this new order. USAID has had a direct long-term engagement in the country on these sectors through various projects implemented under strategic partners. The 90-day suspension and the expected review on how the ongoing projects align with American interests will have huge casualties. Withdrawal from WHO and redefining gender has direct consequences of pre-existing health programs under the agency and funding for gender-based civil society activities.
The recently established Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) headed by the likes of Elon Musk have viewed many of the ongoing programs as avenues for waste and corruption within the US government. We should expect a radical business investment approach on how each of the ongoing programs shall be evaluated.
Climate change, a pet agenda for President Ruto will be the next major casualty. Even on his first term in office, Trump has never shied away from expressing his reservations on the science behind Climate Change. He even went so far as to be dramatic with the phrase ‘drill, baby, drill’, referring to the US ramping up fossil fuel production and ending restrictions in energy that promote green energy sources under the Biden administration.
Finally, there may be a ray of hope towards the ending of the Ukraine-Russian conflict that may unlock global supply chains that have hampered key imports and exports to the two countries.
As an experienced deal maker, Trump has signalled a potential end to the crisis. Kenya does have strategic trading interests with the two countries in conflict.
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