NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 29 – The Kenya Meteorological Department has warned of an increased risk of fires in the Northeastern region due to expected below-average rainfall during the March-April-May season.
During the 10th National Climate Outlook Forum, Dr. David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, explained that the anticipated rainfall will have both positive and negative impacts across various sectors.
“The expected rainfall during the March to May long rains season will impact different sectors in both negative and positive ways, with sector leads to provide specific details,” Gikungu said.
The forecast indicates that Northeastern counties—including Mandera, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo—will experience occasional rainfall, which is likely to be below the normal amounts for the season.
“Below-average rainfall is expected in the northeastern and northern coastal regions of Kenya. The Northeastern counties are expected to receive occasional rainfall, but amounts are likely to be below the long-term average for the season,” Gikungu noted.
Isiolo, which is part of this region, recently experienced a fire that destroyed nearly 600,000 acres of land. The fire, believed to have been started by two pastoralists trying to control tick and tsetse fly infestations among their livestock, posed severe risks to wildlife, livestock, and local livelihoods.
Following the fire, Principal Secretary for Internal Security and National Administration, Raymond Omollo, and Forestry PS Gitonga Mugambi urged local residents to plant more trees to combat climate change and prevent similar incidents.
The March-May (MAM) period marks the primary rainfall season across much of Kenya and equatorial Eastern Africa. Areas such as the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), and the Coastal Strip typically receive the highest seasonal rainfall amounts (over 300mm).
The March to May 2025 long-rain season forecast includes the following:
- Lake Victoria Basin, South Rift Valley, and parts of Highlands West of the Rift Valley (e.g., Kisumu, Homa Bay, Bomet, Kericho): Rainfall is expected to continue from February into the season, with occasional breaks, likely near or above the long-term average for the season.
- Central and North Rift Valley (e.g., Nakuru, Baringo, Laikipia): These areas are expected to receive near to below-average rainfall, with occasional rainfall in February.
- Northwestern Counties (e.g., Turkana, Samburu): Rainfall is expected to be near to below average, though areas bordering South Sudan may experience near to above-average rainfall.
- Highlands East of the Rift Valley (e.g., Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri): These counties are likely to experience rainfall during the season, with breaks, and amounts are expected to be near or below the long-term average.
- Southeastern Lowlands (e.g., Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado): Expected rainfall is likely to be near or below average, although Kajiado and parts of Taita Taveta may see above-average rainfall.
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