President William Ruto still has chances of galvanizing votes to maintain his current lead as he gears towards the 2027 presidential poll, especially now that he has the support of ODM leader Raila Odinga.
Despite the fact that he is facing headwinds in some parts of the Mt Kenya region, political pundits argue that the President still has the option of using Mt Kenya East, especially Meru and Tharaka counties as the springboard to regain a strong foothold in the region.
“He still has some support in some parts of the region although it will be difficult for him in Mt Kenya West, where he needs to work hard,” says Gitile Naituli, a professor at Multimedia University.
The President still has the support of all MPs from the larger Meru region firmly in his political camp, plus a sizeable number of others from the Mt Kenya West side. During former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment, 46 MPs from the region sided with President Ruto.
Ruto, however, recently received a hostile reception in Embu a few weeks ago, but political pundits concur that if he manages to put the economy on track, the Mt Kenya region will still support him in 2027.
Unite Kenya
After developing some bromance with ODM leader Raila Odinga, a man he fought a bruising battle with and narrowly won in the 2022 election, Ruto has now become a frequent visitor to Kisumu, particularly the restless political hotbed suburb of Kondele.
That appears to be a key option that he is banking on while also taking a close interest in the neighbouring former western province, where he frequently dashes for prayer meetings and other engagements.
“I will work with Raila to unite Kenya. I helped him in the past and this time he has helped me. I stood here in Kondele sometime back and told you those who spread tribalism and division will be shown the way home because they have no space in the new Kenya,” Ruto said in Kondele last week.
READ: Ruto, allies plot how to win back Mt Kenya
The broadside was seemingly aimed at the former Deputy President and his allies in the Mt Kenya region.
The questions that beg to be answered now are, can President Ruto use his newfound bromance with Raila to fully inherit the latter’s support base and, as earlier put, which other options does he have?
Historian Macharia Munene’s take is that the President needs to invest more in convincing Kenyans through tangible programmes to bring positive change and improve the quality of life in the country.
“He needs to get better advice on how to run and grow the economy. The President should also start listening more to Kenyans, including mainstream church leaders, instead of working with foreign leaders and agencies like IMF and the World Bank,” says Prof Munene.
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President Ruto is also advised to listen less to cheerleaders, especially MPs who are close to him because, instead of helping, they only further alienate the masses from his government, especially in the Mt Kenya region.
He can also create more friends through taking action that can lead to a freer environment as opposed to the continued abductions and harassment of Kenyans in broad daylight by people police claim they do not know.
Munene sees a situation where serious scrutiny on issues like good governance and human rights abuses is going to determine the next elections, and if nothing changes, then the Kenya Kwanza leadership will find it really tough.
Assuming that Ruto may lose over 80 per cent of the Mt Kenya region vote, then he will rely more on Raila’s support base in Nyanza. But that vote, as explained by political analysts, may not adequately cover for the deficit.
Munene’s presumption is that even if Raila comes out too strongly to campaign for Ruto in 2027, he will help him get a substantial vote, especially in Luo Nyanza but the fact that he will not be on the ballot paper could diminish the numbers.
Munene, however, says he doesn’t see Raila’s making a big difference in the western region because of the past voting patterns and also because of the emerging new players like Governor George Natembeya of Trans Nzoia and, lately, Busia Senator Okiya Omutatah.
“Natembeya’s Tawe movement is creating small waves and that is another challenge because people like Musalia Mudavadi who are in Rutos’ camp cannot help much. Mudavadi is a likeable personality but his inability to attract voters is not very high even when he is a candidate himself,” says Munene.
READ: Has William Ruto lost the mountain?
President Ruto has also, in the last few weeks, tried to fashion himself as a national leader, another option that is available to him, especially after doing away with former deputy Gachagua who was painted as a tribalist.
Munene, however, thinks critics will expose some weaknesses on that front because it is argued that the appointments in public service tell a different story.
Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) spokesperson Tony Gachoka also holds the view that the appointment of Kithure Kindiki as Deputy President complicates matters for Mudavadi who is supposed to be Ruto’s key ally in the western region.
Not enough
That is because although Ruto can use him to campaign in western, Mudavadi will have little bargaining power because his own road to the presidency is narrowed by Kindiki, who has worked with the President since their days in the United Republican Party (URP).
Gachoka also points out that Ruto is exploring uncharted waters because for the last 20 years, Raila Odinga has always been a presidential candidate and Kenyans have therefore never had an opportunity to test his popularity without him on the ballot.
Gachoka told The Sunday Standard that people in government have tried to approach a former Cabinet Secretary in President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Cabinet from the Mt Kenya region to join the current government.
“People were looking for Uhuru to give him a nominee for a vacant CS position but that was declined. That shows how limited Ruto’s options are. It also means that Raila’s support alone may not be not enough,” says Gachoka.
He reasons that since the voter turnout in Luo Nyanza reduced significantly in the 2022 presidential polls, it means there is a diminishing return on Raila’s support in the region and that could also heavily impact on Ruto’s chances of winning.
Gachoka, who is currently working with Wiper Democratic Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa, also thinks there is rebellion in western Kenya against ODM because of the campaign mounted by Natembeya and Wamalwa.
He also attributes the increasing number of presidential candidates in the area to the opportunity provided by the diminishing support of ODM which used to control areas like Busia where Okiya Omutata comes from.
Although President Ruto received over 200,000 votes from Bungoma last time to help him narrowly defeat Raila, the ODM leader garnered more votes than his Kenya Kwanza rival in the entire western region.
Gachoka strongly believes Ruto will not rely on Raila in Western given that the region will most likely have a presidential candidate, whoever it is, meaning Raila’s support will not transform to anything substantial.
ALSO READ: How Ruto has singlehandedly dismantled Mt Kenya region politically
Debate over whether the region has received a commensurate return from the support they gave President Ruto in 2022, compared to what Raila and ODM has received in the broad-based government continues raging at political rallies in Western.
False hopes
Nairobi politician Philip Kisia asserts that President Ruto’s options are becoming increasingly limited because attempts to recover the Mt Kenya voting block will be a task that may be too difficult to overcome.
“They say Mt Kenya East and Kirinyaga will be with him because MPs from those regions led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki are with him. But the reception he received in Embu and Murang’a tell a different story,” says Kisia.
Kisia thinks the MPs from those regions are giving the President false hopes, probably because they want to be financially supported in mobilising votes that are, in fact, not there.
“They are therefore lying that Meru, Embu and Kirinyaga are with the President, yet they are self-seekers who already know that the situation on the ground is hostile to all Kenya Kwanza leaders, themselves included,” Kisia says.
From his reading, Raila is the only person who is strongly holding Ruto’s hand, and the President should therefore push really hard for his African Union chairperson election bid, as he doubles his efforts to endear himself to the people before 2027.
Kisia equates the space President Ruto finds himself in now, to where Uhuru and Raila were in 2022. At that time, the former President and his ally Raila were seen to be with the system, as Ruto took off with the people.
For him to win over the hustlers, Ruto has to also recalibrate his messaging. Otherwise, he will not be believed.
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